Scientist: Spike in crime not caused by less people in jail - KOAT Albuquerque

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. —

Crime is on the rise in Albuquerque and Mayor Richard Berry said the spike is because there are fewer people in the county jail.

"We've been saying for years if we keep emptying the jail, we're going to see crime continue to go up," said Berry.

Overcrowding was a dangerous and expensive issue at the Metropolitan Detention Center a few years ago, prompting several court reforms like releasing people before their trials if judges felt it was safe to do.

But one UNM scientist insists the drop in jail population is not what's fueling more crime.

Paul Guerin is a social-research scientist who's been analyzing local crime and jail data for 20 years. He said the issue is much more complicated, and feels that oversimplifying it does a disservice to the community.

He said while at first glance, the data might appear to show the mayor is right, "it's not so simple that one goes up and the other goes down."

Guerin is a scientist at UNM. He says he's also tracked auto thefts and the jail population back to 2001.

He said crime doesn't always go up when the jail population goes down.

“In some years, you see auto thefts going up, the jail population is going up and in some years you'll see them going down when the population is going down,” Guerin said.

He said he can't yet say what is causing the city's spike in crime.

“I don't think we understand it well enough yet to describe why exactly,” Guerin said.

KOAT asked a city official what he thought of Guerin's analysis.

KOAT: “So if that relationship doesn't always work, can you really say that one really causes the other?

“I think you'd be a fool, an absolute fool, not to look at the reality that if you put more criminals back into the community, then undoubtedly those criminals are going to commit more crimes,” CABQ spell out acronym on first reference Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry said.

Despite their differing opinions, Guerin actually is working with the city to research where crime occurs the most.

He believes it's yet another puzzle piece that will help identify the causes and solutions for the crisis.

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