Crime, murder rates set to drop in 2017 - Washington Examiner

A preliminary analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law said the overall crime rate, the violent crime rate and the murder rate are all projected to decline in 2017, despite Attorney General Jeff Sessions' assertion that the U.S. has a large and growing crime problem.

The overall crime rate is projected to drop by 1.8 percent from last year to 2017 — the second-lowest rate of any year since 1990.

The Brennan Center report also found that the violent crime rate is projected to drop by 0.6 percent compared to 2016, and that the murder rate will drop by 2.5 percent.

The decrease in the violent crime rate is due to a "stabilization" of the violent crime rate in Chicago, and declines in Washington, D.C., the Brennan Center said.

The U.S. did see a uptick in violent crime and murder in 2015 and 2016, in large part because of violence in Chicago and Baltimore. But this year, violent crime will drop in Chicago, and Detroit, Houston, and New York are also expected to see drops in the murder rate.

Sessions directed his federal prosecutors in May to pursue the most harsh penalties possible, including mandatory minimum sentences, in order to fight crime this year. But the Brennan Center said those fears may have been overblown.

"We think the administration needs to stoke fears of rising crime to sell their agenda on everything from criminal justice and immigration. Trump and Sessions stand largely alone on those issues, backing a ‘tough on crime' philosophy that many conservatives have long-since rejected as both misguided and bad for public safety. Fear helps Trump and Sessions sell those policies, since experience and the data won't," Ames Grawert, counsel in the Brennan Center's Justice Program, told the Washington Examiner.

Mark Holden, general counsel and senior vice president at the conservative Koch Industries, said the data clearly "undercuts" any claims of a national crime wave.

"But there's still much work to be done. We should learn from the dozens of states that have made moves to successfully reduce crime, incarceration, and recidivism together. Such common-sense reforms make everyone safer, including law enforcement officers, and ensure that decades of bipartisan progress continue," Holden said.

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