Explanation of spike in crime in Charlottesville elusive - The Daily Progress

Violent crime in Charlottesville rose 26.6 percent in 2016 from the previous year and serious crimes overall rose 9.5 percent, but police officials say the figures belie the safety of the city’s streets.

In 2016, the city saw 195 crimes against people, including killings, sexual assaults, robberies and serious assaults. That’s up from 154 in 2015, which was the lowest figure in a decade. The 2016 figures, the latest year for which final numbers are available, are the highest for violent crime since 2009.

“Most violent crime is between people who know each other or who have been associated with each other,” said Charlottesville police Senior Officer Cody Bowman. “Most violence occurs behind closed doors and between people who have issues with each other, so, while there is a significant rise in violent crime, it doesn’t mean that your walk down the street is going to be more dangerous.”

Bowman said that while violent crime was up, overall serious crime was not out of the expected range, and property crime was lower than the expected range.

“With crime data, the best practice and industry standard is to go back about five years,” Bowman said. “If you go back more than that, you can run into a variety of issues that affect the statistics, from population growth caused by development to policy changes. Anything less than five years and you won’t have enough valid statistics to compare. That being said, 2016 was a very fascinating year.”

The range of violent crimes committed over the last five years is between 155 and 176, which makes the 2016 jump in violent crimes statistically significant. Why those crimes increased is hard to pinpoint, Bowman said.

“There’s no one single factor for why crime rises. You can’t really point to this or that, although there are all kinds of theories about what causes crime and who commits it. Sometimes, it’s just a perfect storm of events,” he said.

The city’s hike in violent crime reflected a nationwide trend for 2016. According to the FBI, violent crime rose 4.1 percent across the country compared with 2015.

In 2016, there were 1,248,185 violent crimes nationwide, with homicides up 8.6 percent from 2015. Aggravated assault and rape offenses increased 5.1 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, and robbery increased 1.2 percent.

For the city, the 131 aggravated assaults in 2016 were significantly higher than the expected norm of between 82 and 105, while a single homicide in 2016 was within the normal range of zero to four.

Rapes and sexual assaults were slightly higher at 23, with a norm of nine to 21, while the 40 robberies were slightly under expected norms of between 42 and 60.

The city saw felony property crimes rise 7.2 percent in 2016, with 1,222 compared with 1,140 in 2015. But the 2015 total was the lowest number since 2005, and 2016 was the second-lowest.

The same held true for the total number of serious crimes, called Part 1 crimes by the FBI, which rose 9.5 percent in 2016 compared with 2015. Once again, 2015 was the lowest number since 2005 and the 2016 figure the second-lowest.

Neither the total serious crimes nor the felony property crimes were statistically significant.

In Charlottesville in 2016, the neighborhood with the most serious crimes was Belmont, with 192. The Venable neighborhood was second with 105 and the Downtown Mall area was a close third with 104.

Although those neighborhoods led the city in the number of serious crimes, the 2016 statistics are well within the normal range, according to the city’s figures.

Seven neighborhoods had crime figures that were better than statistically normal in 2016, meaning they had lower crime rates than usual. Only Fry’s Spring had more serious crimes than normal, with 50 in 2016 compared with a normal range of 32 to 39.

Bowman said that without an obvious trend, such as several years of increased or decreased crime in a neighborhood, the reason behind a rise or fall is likely left to chance.

“Small things can add up during the year that you may not see the next year,” he said. “There are no simple answers for what can be a very complex question.”

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